Say what you might about how ineptly Japan's PM Shinzo Abe is governing or handling the "comfort women" issue and similar topics for apology, but it might not really matter as much as ideology or geopolitics.

Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister whose own father was a prisoner of the Japanese for more than three years, talks up their co-operation in disaster assistance after the Indian Ocean tsunami of late 2004. The two countries' aid programmes in Asia have shared objectives. Thus the agreement's provisions for regular meetings involving the two sides' foreign and defence ministers, joint military exercises, and more formal arrangements for sharing information would all improve humanitarian missions.

A security agreement is a symbolic way of building up those new aspects of the relationship, says Mr Downer. The two sides will also negotiate a free-trade agreement to strengthen economic ties. All good stuff. But the louder the denials from both sides, the more evident is the main catalyst for the security pact: the rise of China.

That may come as a surprise to some. Australia has often had to defend itself against charges from human-rights groups and others of sacrificing democratic principles for profits in its dealings with China, which has an inexhaustible appetite for the commodities, such as iron ore and uranium, that Australia is able to supply. But as an Australian diplomat explains: “China is a good, constructive commercial partner, but in terms of ideas and values, it will never be anywhere near as close to us as Japan. It's quite clear: Japan is our best friend in Asia.�