Left Flank

No one mourns the demise of Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who very well could have been Washington's best hope for a true ally in Northeast Asia (if taro Aso stumbles). TPR's DeOrio is sarcastic enough to wonder if the whole drama was just a staged «job swap» between Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Aso. Robert Koehler will miss a steady source of «good blog material».

The Economist offers more than a few damning reasons Abe failed:

t had started well. Mr Abe was relatively young?the first prime minister born after the second world war. He had the blessing of the outgoing prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, who had dazzled the nation with his message of change. Mr Koizumi had a year earlier won a landslide general election, appealing over the heads of his party in favour of essential reforms, notably the privatisation of the postal-savings system, a fount of political patronage. Thanks to Mr Koizumi, Mr Abe inherited a huge majority for the LDP-led coalition in the lower house of the Diet (parliament) and a newly empowered office of the prime minister. Japan?s economy also looked to be returning to health after long years of slump. At the outset, Mr Abe?s government enjoyed huge popularity.

Yet the tide in Mr Abe?s affairs only ebbed. True, early on he made a notable opening towards China, with whom relations had been strained under Mr Koizumi. Other than that, Mr Abe showed an inability to impose discipline upon a cabinet of the corrupt and incompetent. Worse, he had a tin ear for the political mood. Voters, it turned out, were not in fact keen on cost-cutting and structural reform, which entailed pain and uncertainty, particularly in rural regions and among the old. Mr Abe, uninterested in domestic policy, failed to reassure them. Mr Abe?s inert response to a bureaucratic scandal involving 50m missing pensions records underscored how out of touch he was.

The next reason is Ichiro Ozawa, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Here is where the serious stuff starts. After all, the messenger was clearly inept, but the message deserves better. In short, Abe failed to sell the package, and for that reason alone, he gets no sympathy.

He [Ozawa] picked a fight over the extension of emergency ?anti-terror? measures, due to expire on November 1st, which allow Japan to keep refuelling ships in the Indian Ocean?ostensibly to aid American-led efforts in Afghanistan, though perhaps that help is also going to Iraq. Mr Abe believes deeply in the Japanese presence: to him, it reaffirms Japan?s alliance with America, the basis for the country?s security. Mr Abe and his kind argue that a pull-out of Japanese ships from the Indian Ocean would be disastrous for Japan?s international standing.

No matter, says Mr Ozawa. The DPJ leader says that the Indian Ocean operation breaches constitutional limitations on collective self-defence, adding that any international presence for Japanese forces has to be mandated by the United Nations. But more than anything, Mr Ozawa?s stand is tactical: he cleverly challenged Mr Abe on his own ground, by promising that the upper house would block any extension of the measures. On Wednesday Mr Abe claimed that his position was no longer tenable because Mr Ozawa refused to compromise.

Abe failed as a tactician finally. The DPJ took his pledge on the November 1st deadline as a challenge. And, if a politician, especially a chief executive, can't make compromises or charm, why should he or she be in office?

Finally, Abe lost because he was not Koizumi.

And, this is where I hope the Liberal Democrats don't return to business as usual.

In truth, Mr Abe had lost the last scraps of confidence in him from his own party. The LDP will now want, swiftly, to find a successor as president of the party and therefore?thanks to the LDP?s continuing majority in the lower house?prime minister. Party members will vote for Mr Abe?s successor on September 19th. The favourite is Taro Aso, foreign minister under both Mr Koizumi and Mr Abe, and LDP secretary-general for the past few weeks. Cocky and with an earthy humour, Mr Aso leads a small party faction and would probably prove acceptable to the heads of bigger factions if these were assured plum posts in government and party.

But some members will argue that this kind of back-room dealing is just what voters loathe, and will perhaps put forward a reformist in the Koizumi mould. More likely, the party might conclude that Mr Aso?s neoconservative views, which resemble Mr Abe?s, are not what needs to be on display.

At the risk of sounding like a foreigner, I hope Japanese voters have a chance to sort this mess out.