Left Flank

Skepticism is greeting Israeli satellite photos of the Dayr az Zawr construction site its air force bombed on September 6. The Washington Post continues to match skepticism with misleading headlines:

Some nuclear experts urged caution in interpreting the photos, noting that the type of reactor favored by North Korea has few distinguishing characteristics visible from the air. Unlike commercial nuclear power reactors, for example, a North Korea-style reactor lacks the distinctive, dome-shaped containment vessel that prevents the release of radiation in the event of a nuclear accident.

«You can look at North Korea's [reactor] buildings, and they look like nothing,» said John E. Pike, a nuclear expert and director of GlobalSecurity.org. «They're just metal-skinned industrial buildings.» The proximity of the building to a water source also is not significant by itself, Pike said.

But Brannan, of ISIS, combed through a huge amount of satellite imagery to find a site along the Euphrates that matches a reactor's specifications as well as descriptions of the attack site. The compound's distance from populated areas was a key detail, since reactors are usually isolated from major urban populations.

The site is also close to an irrigated area, which would explain statements by some officials privy to details of the attack that the facility was located near orchards. A small airstrip about two miles away could have been used to transport personnel to the site.

Jeffrey Lewis (via FP Passport) is skeptical about that connection to water.

The problem here is that North Korea?s reactors are gas-cooled. You see, if there is a pump , the reactor can not be, as David Sanger and Mark Mazzetti reported, ?modeled on one North Korea has used to create its stockpile of nuclear weapons.? (A careful reader in the comments points out that the pump could be for a secondary cooling tower like the one at Yongbyon, a possibility that I neglected.)

So, one of the two stories is dead wrong. It either is either water-cooled or it resembles the reactor at Yongbyon, which is gas-cooled.

Now, in addition to light-water reactors, a heavy water reactor, like Iran is building at Arak, would have pumps. No one, however, seems to be suggesting an Iran-Syria link. I am not sure why ? perhaps the pump drew H₂0 from the river.

It's clear the problem here is political-the truth might just be too inconvenient to accept.