Left Flank

Georgia's «Rose Revolution», after a favorable start, might now come to signify why democratization defined as mere electioneering is even worse than geopolitical stability.

This all makes recent events in Georgia more depressing. On November 7th the government cleared opposition protesters from Tbilisi's main street after five days of demonstrations. The move went wrong as the opposition called in reinforcements, provoking riot police into liberal use of batons and tear-gas. A state of emergency was declared and opposition television stations were taken off the air. The next day Mr Saakashvili declared that he would hold a snap presidential election on January 5th. â€ūYou wanted early elections,â€? he said. â€ūHave them even earlier!â€? This week the government announced the lifting of the state of emergency, too.

At the start of the protests, Salome Zourabichvili, a former French ambassador who became Georgia's foreign minister before being sacked by Mr Saakashvili, said that the government liked to show reconstruction to foreigners to mislead them. â€ūWe are living in a Potemkin country,â€? she scoffed. This is unfair, but life is hard for most Georgians. Former industrial towns such as Zestaponi and Kutaisi remain devastated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The countryside is dotted with skeletal remnants of factories. One of Georgia's biggest exports is scrap metal.

Expectations of Mr Saakashvili were so high that they could only be dashed. Alex Rondeli, an analyst, suggests that part of the problem is that no politician who wants to stay in office can be truly honest about how long rebuilding Georgia is going to take. â€ūIt will take time,â€? he says, â€ūmore than one generation.â€? Mr Saakashvili and his friends have been tough and acted quickly, but in the process they have made enemies. Many claim that Mr Saakashvili has let power go to his head.

If he is no longer half as popular at home (and abroad) as he once was, it still seems likely that he will win the presidential election. Badri Patarkatsishvili, a tycoon, has declared that he will run. The opposition is furious because this may divide the anti-Saakashvili vote. According to David Usupashvili, leader of the Republican Party, the aim of the ten-party opposition coalition, who have chosen Levan Gachechiladze, a former businessman, as their candidate, is to scrap the present presidential system. â€ūWe are not searching for a better Saakashvili,â€? he says.

All bets are off.