Left Flank

By way of responding to Brendan, both Senator Mel Martinez (R., Fl.) and presidential candidate Mayor Rudy Giuliani have both pointed out the shuttle-Constellation gap. Giuliani believes it's a 'money issue'; Martinez wants to extend the working life of the space shuttle. But, 2013, at the minimum, is a long time to fly shuttles.

So, what to do for five or more years? Peter Diamandis, CEO of the X Prize Foundation, has an idea or two about the next phase of space exploration:

Two fundamental realities will drive space exploration forwards. First, wealth is accumulating in the hands of ambitious and visionary individuals, many of whom view space simultaneously as an adventure and as a place to make money. What was once affordable only by nations can now be funded by individuals.

Second, corporations and investors are realising that resources on Earth are limited and are running out. But everything we hold of value on Earth—metals, minerals, energy and real estate—is in near-infinite supply in space. As space operations become more affordable, companies will set their sights on extra-terrestrial resources, and what was once thought of as a vast wasteland will become the next «gold rush».

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This is not to say that governments will have no role. They will retain the critical work of pure science, and of answering some of the biggest unknowns: for example, is there life on Mars? Governments should play the important role of big customer and get out of the operations business. In the same way that government agencies don't build their own PCs, or fly their own commuter airlines, in the future governments will buy seats on commercial orbital vehicles, and stay aboard commercial space stations. Politicians will also need to determine what laws govern space and its colonies—and how to respond if space colonies strike out on their own and claim independence.

And, government retains its monopoly on the use of force in space. All the national space agencies will have to devise a way to keep this corner of the solar system peaceful, as well as stay out of each other's way. There is also the question of defending the terrestrial infrastructure, like launch pads, and protecting against industrial espionage. But, the US, according to Everett C. Dolman's Astropolitik, should, firstly, achieve control of the entire near-earth environment, followed by forming an agency capable of coordinating the activities of commercial and military projects. NASA has devoted too many resources to exploration. Instead of the romantic individualism of racing to Mars, NASA should devote itself to establishing forts on the vast plains of the solar system.

A decade just might be long enough for Americans to prepare for this new world.