Left Flank

Timor-Leste, the world's last state, could be unraveling. Timor-Leste's president, José Ramos-Horta, according to a government website, "…is no longer in a coma after receiving surgery in the Royal Darwin Hospital. The doctors have taken out the rest of the bullets lodged in his spine." Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão escaped unharmed from a separate attack on his motorcade. His alleged murderer, "the Major", a former MP commander, Alfredo Reinado is also dead.

Reinado was gunned down outside President Jose Ramos-Horta's compound during what authorities claim was an assassination attempt on the country's President and its Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmão. Reinado's comrades angrily deny this and say their commander had been invited into town for a meeting when he was attacked, and that Ramos-Horta was caught in the ensuing gunfight…

Many Timorese were astonished by the news, for "the Major" — as Reinado was known locally — was considered a clever and cunning tactician who would rarely put himself in danger. In May 2006, half the Timorese army was dismissed following a strike protesting discrimination against soldiers from the west of the country. The government had used the army to crush the strike with great brutality: at least five men died and many more were wounded. Reinado led his men into the mountains in disgust. He had since eluded capture, using his intimate knowledge of the mountain and bush tracks of his eastern homeland, while a network of loyal villagers with mobile phones kept him apprised of the movements of United Nations Police and the troops of the Australian-led International Stabilisation Force (ISF).

A failed ISF attempt to capture him at the village of Same last year killed five of his men; ever since, Reinado appeared increasingly paranoid…

The Economist characterizes Timor-Leste as "in a mess", and considers the assassination attempts "…a serious setback for a country still struggling, with the help of the UN, to build its institutions." Yet, a January 2008 International Crisis Group report blames both the government, characterized as "autocratic" and the UN for problems in the security sector.

The problems run deep. Neither the UN administration nor successive Timorese governments did enough to build a national consensus about security needs and the kind of forces required to meet them. There is no national security policy, and there are important gaps in security-related legislation. The police suffer from low status and an excess of political interference. The army still trades on its heroism in resisting the Indonesian occupation but has not yet found a new role and has been plagued by regional (east-west) rivalry. There is a lack of transparency and orderly arrangements in political control as well as parliamentary and judicial oversight with respect to both forces.

The government that took office in August 2007 has an opportunity – while international troops maintain basic security and the UN offers assistance – to conduct a genuine reform of the security sector, drawing on the experiences of other post-conflict countries. But international goodwill is not inexhaustible – there are already signs of donor fatigue – so it needs to act fast.

For its part, the international community must do a better job of coordinating its support to the security sector and responding to a Timorese-owned reform process. For example, the UN police who screen and mentor the local force should be better trained and supervised, and more responsive to feedback from their Timorese colleagues. The departure of the lead UN official on security sector reform at the end of 2007 means that this issue, already sidelined during the 2007 elections, risks further delay.

Another layer of future discord is added by the presence of Australian troops (catalogued here by the Australian Department of Defense).

How can someone believe that a few more hundred of incompetent Australian military and federal police officers, known by their lack of respect for Timorese institutions, target of complaints and criminal processes for disrespecting and disobedience to the Timorese judiciary, will address whatever problem there is?

Generally, there are a mixture of opinions in the above-quoted blog, indicating a plurality of local sentiments.

Indeed, Australia's foreign minister, Stephen Smith, has taken a hard stance against Dili's policy toward Reinado, signaling a willingness to use force. How this hardline stance matches an unstable environment where public opinion is fractious is crucial.