Left Flank

One would think Thailand could have at least solved its Muslim problem in its southern provinces during its period of military rule. Especially, that is, when one considers that the southernmost provinces were supposedly one cause for the 2005 coup Thailand is just now recovering from.

Violence has flickered in the south ever since Thailand annexed the region, which was formerly an independent sultanate, in 1902 and began trying to assimilate its mainly Malay-speaking Muslim people into a Thai-speaking, Buddhist nation. In the past three years, more than 1,700 have been killed by suspected militants, the security forces and unknown assailants. Three days before this week's anniversary, a soldier was killed by a bomb as he guarded monks begging for alms in Narathiwat city, the capital of the province in which Tak Bai is situated. Four days later, gunmen opened fire outside a mosque in a nearby village, killing an imam.

Earlier this year, Thaksin Shinawatra, the then prime minister, gave the army commander, Sonthi Boonyaratglin, «full authority» to quell the unrest. But General Sonthi, a rare Thai Muslim in a senior post, wanted to negotiate with the rebels; Mr Thaksin did not. This may have been one reason for the coup that the army chief led last month. Surayud Chulanont, a retired general and now interim prime minister, promises a softer approach to the conflict.

In the past week he has toured neighbouring countries, seeking advice on the conflict. In Jakarta, Mr Surayud said the peace process under way in Indonesia's breakaway Aceh province would serve as a model. In Kuala Lumpur, he won promises of co-operation from Abdullah Badawi, the prime minister of Malaysia, which Mr Thaksin used to accuse of sheltering militant leaders. It was revealed that Mr Badawi's predecessor, Mahathir Mohamad, had been brokering secret talks between Thai officials and southern separatists even before Mr Thaksin's downfall.

But, General Surayud lost to the Buddhist hardliners.

Former Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, a retired Army general, won praise in 2006 for apologizing for past government abuses in the south, including the breakup of a demonstration in 2004 that led to the deaths of more than 80 Muslim men in Army custody.

He also promised broad reconciliation and a redress of past injustices, raising hopes of a judicial reckoning for security forces implicated in abuses.

But a string of setbacks and political infighting caused his olive branch to wither, leaving Army hard-liners a free hand to go back on the offensive. "Surayud said the right things," says a Western diplomat in Bangkok. "It was a nice symbolic gesture, a step in the right direction, but there was no follow-through."

Now, Thailand is back to the original idea: provincial autonomy. And, fighting between the civilian government and the military.

It's as if two years never happened!