Left Flank

It's politics as usual in Pakistan, where opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination has become a negotiating point:

Miss Bhutto died in a suicide attack in Rawalpindi on December 27th while campaigning for the election, which was supposed to be held on January 8th. But the former ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Q) party, which is loyal to the recently demobbed Mr Musharraf, and the electoral commission, which is allegedly also loyal to the president, have argued for a delay. They cite worries over the destruction of at least 13 polling stations in Miss Bhutto's southern Sindh province, as well as festering insecurity. They may also fear that a surge of sympathy for Miss Bhutto may galvanise opposition to Mr Musharraf.

For its part the PPP, now nominally led by Miss Bhutto's 19-year-old son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, with her widower, Asif Zardari, as co-chairman and, in effect, his son's regent, has insisted that the election be held on time. In a joint statement, Mr Zardari and his son said: «The January 8th elections must proceed as scheduled. This will not only be a tribute to the memory of Benazir Bhutto, but even more important, a reaffirmation of the cause of democracy for which she died.»

The PPP fears that a postponement would allow time for Pakistani sympathies to dwindle. It would also give Mr Musharraf's army agents pause to make fresh arrangements to rig the election in his favour. They have, after all, rigged the recent elections presided over by Mr Musharraf. On Monday PPP officials said that Miss Bhutto had been due to hand a long dossier on Mr Musharraf's latest election-rigging schemes to a visiting American delegation.

Other opposition parties, notably Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), the third biggest, want a prompt election for much the same reasons. Mr Sharif, the main opponent of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province, is hoping to profit from a wave of anti-Musharraf feeling there. His prospects were poor before Miss Bhutto's murder, but could perk up considerably. That would represent a fresh logistical challenge for Mr Musharraf's agents, who may consider it imperative to prevent the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) winning sufficient votes to be able to form a government together. On Monday Mr Sharif demanded that Mr Musharraf—who deposed him in a coup in 1999—should step down, a unity government be formed, then elections held.

Reuters makes clear just how the PPP has taken advantage of its slain leader's canonization:

Bhutto's killing has fuelled doubts about stability and the transition to democratic rule in nuclear-armed Pakistan, a crucial U.S. ally in its anti-terrorism efforts.

The Election Commission said on Tuesday "in principle" the vote would be delayed but Bhutto's party has objected and analysts said a postponement could lead to more violence.

Bhutto's party would expect to reap a considerable sympathy vote following her assassination in a gun and bomb attack as she left a rally in Rawalpindi on Thursday.

God forbid, militants or the military don't assassinate any more leaders, or else the the value of blood will trump the middle class vote.

Juan Cole, reporting on the Palistan People's Party's decision to run Makhdum Amin Fahim for prime minister on January 8th, takes a good swipe ridiculing the party of feudalism the PPP is determined to remain.

The PPP during the past two decades has been internally split between a rising middle class urban leadership and the old landowning families. An alternative to Fahim would have been the smart Punjabi lawyer, Aitzaz Ahsan, who was jailed for protesting the dismissal of the justices, and is admired by a lot of the urban activists. Despite Benazir's own education abroad, her instincts (and now those of her widower) was always to "run the feudals," and to depend on the landlords' ability to get out the vote among their own (largely illiterate and repressed) peasants.

The PPP leadership had a chance to become the party of the future and to galvanize the new middle class, which has spearheaded the challenge to Musharraf over his gutting of the judiciary. It has instead run the feudals again. Fahim seems to me unlikely to generate the sort of excitement that Aitzaz Ahsan would have. But then, the PPP will probably get a big sympathy vote. Once in power, however, unless it pursues policies that benefit urban classes, it will find itself eclipsed.

So, Pakistan=Fief, People=Lord, Party=Clan?

The coming-out party for the son of Pakistan's slain former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, and Asif Ali Zardari, now christened for his new role as titular leader of the Pakistan people's Party (PPP), Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, demonstrates the fragility of republican institutions in Asian states. Zardari is 19 years old. Furthermore, he's not even a college graduate, or even, as he admits, knowledgeable about his own country. Zardari's father and a committee will actually run the PPP.

Matthew Yglesias points out the dynastic streak in South Asian politics. Pakistan is also prone to military coups. But, within the context of the continent - setting South Asian dynasties apart - where Japan's prime minister is the second in generations, ROK's conservative party includes the daughter of an assassinated dictator, and DPRK's regime is unabashedly communist and dynastic, perhaps it's fitting to call Asian states elective aristocracies.

The younger Zardari's rise echoes the chilling, emotionally resonant path of his mother, who was thrust into public life after her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was hanged in 1979 by order of the military ruler, General Mohammad Zia ul-Haq.

Shortly before the official announcement of his ascension at a crowded news conference came a ceremonious rearrangement of the dais. His newly constructed name was pinned to the back of a high-backed red chair, which was then adorned with a cushion and placed at the center of a long table. He entered, dressed in a black salwar kameez, the traditional long tunic and pants, and Armani glasses, biting his lips and carrying a portrait of his mother. He promised to carry on his mother's legacy as "a symbol of the federation."

Rehman Malik, a senior party official, said Bhutto had asked him to coach her son in the basic workings of politics and government, from teaching him how to assess others to taking him to the halls of Parliament.

"She has groomed up her husband," he said. "She was grooming her son also. She was telling me many times he will grow up and take over the party."

For his part, the younger Zardari said he had discussed with his mother the prospects of entering politics, but avoided getting into details about who would take over after her. "We always tried not to have this specific conversation because we hoped this day would come, if not never, then far, far in the future," he said.

The more pertinent question is whether this will make Pakistan more stable. Suicide bombers again detonated themselves, and Pakistan has snubbed American calls for an international commission to investigate Ms. Bhutto's assassination.

The growing questions about Bhutto's assassination have led to calls for an international, independent investigation. While the government dismissed that idea, U.S. officials said Pakistan was quietly consulting with other countries about the conduct of the probe, suggesting the country wants to ensure its findings are seen as credible.

Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema defended the government's ability to carry out its investigation. He said an independent judicial probe should be completed within seven days of the appointment of its presiding judge.

"This is not an ordinary criminal matter in which we require assistance of the international community. I think we are capable of handling it," he said.

Would a less aristocratic Pakistan be any moe likely to face this issue? Even if Pakistan were stable in the way India is, would bureaucrats want to disclose their secrets any more readily?