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Clouds in fire, originally uploaded by ? AmiBe ?.

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Monk, originally uploaded by Sudoksa.

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In the meantime, the recent disaster has created some small opportunities for Burma's fragile civil society to reconcile with the army. In the cyclone's aftermath, "[the military] even neglect their own," an expatriate in Rangoon said by email last month. "As I passed some soldiers cutting trees yesterday, I asked if they'd eaten breakfast. Of course not! So, I went back home to get them some bread."

it's a a quirkily optimistic image to a very serious argument about getting rid of the Burmese junta: civil society can do, and Cyclone Nargis is the catalyst.

Burma's civic groups and community leaders have spent years learning how to maneuver around such crushing restraints. "They have faced controls on their movements, on goods and money, on their general freedom for so long, they have learned how to rely on some of these backdoor and relationship systems," said Jones. "They know how to get things done in this environment." Because most foreign aid workers still face visa blockades and are prohibited from entering the hardest-hit regions, the coalition has recruited local doctors and nurses to tend to victims. Only a modest flow of aid from abroad has been allowed into the country, so the volunteers rely on well-connected businessmen to procure chlorine tablets and temporary toilets from local suppliers. Low-level military officers helped secure access to the Irrawaddy Delta, the epicenter of the disaster. And the civic groups have turned to blogs and fundraising newsletters to convince potential donors that their contributions won't go straight into the hands of the junta.

Given the magnitude of the devastation, however, even the most enterprising and resourceful grassroots efforts can only go so far. By the government's count, 134,000 people have died or are missing, and the U.N. says that 2.5 million are still in need of aid. The logistical hurdles of reaching the entire Delta region are beyond the scope of any small-scale operation. But though their reach may be limited, the ability of civic groups to persist with their work is evidence that the junta's control is less than total, according to Bridget Welsh, a Southeast Asia expert at Johns Hopkins University. "The fact that they let them have a space, that they have let people act, shows that [officials] on the ground believe the military is not capable of addressing the issues," She says. Such cooperation between local officials and organizers "serves to build trust and networks that bridge divides in the community that the military foster to hold onto power."

In the long run, these kinds of internal networks and linkages are key to any hope for a more open society. As Joshua Kurlantzick argued on this site, neither popular revolt nor international condemnation has led the junta to budge in the past. Over the past month, the generals have acted true to form, limiting foreign aid for fear that "destructive elements" will undermine their grip on the state. By working outside of official channels to deliver humanitarian relief, domestic civic groups have created unlikely alliances within Burma's highly militarized and stratified society: between monks and low-level officials, Delta villagers and city residents, community organizers and military cronies. However precarious these relationships, their potential impact should not be discounted. For ultimately, some analysts say, the catalyst for long-term reform will have to come from within the regime's ruling cadre itself--prompted not only by internal discontent among officers, but also by sympathy for other factions of Burmese society. "The military's mid-level officers would need to see that people are all are suffering, the same as them," says U Win Min, a Burmese exile and political analyst based in Thailand.

This is a much more diabolical, and, in the context of Myanmar's future as a democracy, a more respectful proposal than any neo-con-esque notion of forcing help upon it.

Oh, pity, Buddhists are unsavory bigots, too.

Seated in a wicker-chair, in view of the Indian Ocean, Mr Rathana also wears monk's cloth—in russet, where the Dalai Lama wears red. But he is cut from different stuff. A former communist, Mr Rathana entered parliament in 2004 as a member of the new and all-monk National Heritage Party (NHP). It now has nine MPs and provides majority-making support to the government of President Maninda Rajapakse.

One NHP monk, Chanapika Ranawaka, is Sri Lanka's environment minister. But Mr Rathana is the best known, on account of his noisy pronouncements on the dangers of global warming, alcohol and tobacco, and on the importance of waging war.

Purveyors of an extreme brand of Sinhalese nationalism, the NHP considers Sri Lanka Sinhalese and Buddhist; they believe that those of other faiths and ethnicities, while welcome, must behave like guests. In effect, this means a policy of zero tolerance towards the complaints of the country's Tamil minority and their self-proclaimed champions, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), known as the Tamil Tigers.

(…)

«Always the LTTE start discussions when they are weak, they use peace talks to gain strength, and then they return to bloodshed. It will not happen again,» he says. «If they give up their weapons, then they can talk. If they do not, we will control them by whatever means.»

I'm not passing judgment on the LTTE (a previous attempt to post on the Sri Lankan civil war got lost in a previous WP upgrade), but it's refreshing to know hardline sentiments are not limited to southern Christian preachers.

I've never been a fan of Tibetan Buddhism or the Dalai Lama, but I like how he makes Beijing look silly (even if that makes dealing with it difficult for the US).

China has condemned the Dalai Lama's latest proposals, saying similar remarks earlier this month "violate religious rituals and historic conventions".

Critics say that is ironic coming from an atheistic government long accused of suppressing Tibetan Buddhism.

The Dalai Lama has floated numerous proposals for his succession, including one for Tibetans somehow to hold a referendum on abolishing his office altogether. But, Beijing, like a conspirator trapped in a bad plot, is stuck holding onto tradition.

Implausibly, from a country like the Philippines, comes not one, but two suggestions about how to improve Myanmar's plight.

Firstly, RP President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo believes «woman power» will do the trick, and puts in a good word for perennially detained Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

But, yesterday Fr. Robert Reyes extolled the «activism» of the Philippines' catholic hierarchy, and recommended that Myanmar's «quiet» Buddhist monks » '...work against oppression and violence' «

Quoting a story from the Ucan Catholic news service, Reyes said a Burmese Catholic nun tried to organize her fellow religious but no one responded because they were «afraid to tell the truth.»

According to the report, the nun said in a text message to her friends in Manila that she hoped Church leaders in the Philippines and other countries would lead the universal Church «in prayer and in action, since the Church in Myanmar is so afraid.» «Our Catholic Church is so quiet. Our people do nothing but pray individually, privately,» the nun reportedly said.

The Catholic bishops' conference in Burma issued a statement on Sept. 26 saying that it had been praying for peace and urging the people to offer prayers and sacrifice for the peaceful resolution of the situation in the country.

The Burmese bishops' conference said that while its priests and religious were not involved in party politics and in the recent protests, Catholics were «free to act as they deem fit.»

Reyes said Filipinos were molded by an «active Christian ethic against corruption and oppression.»

?People, I think, in the Philippines, being Christian, have that Christian ethic against corruption and oppression. That is an active ethic. There is a tendency in Buddhism to look at salvation from within,» he said.

Reyes said monastic communities in general exude a «very passive ethic» by their emphasis on «withdrawal from the world.»

?(But) it's not enough to say «Let us pray.» You (just) don't pray against injustice. You work against injustice. You work against oppression and violence,» he said. But now that the Burmese Buddhist monks and nuns have found their voice and actually initiated the pro-democracy protests, Reyes said the world should not forget them.

If only Myanmar could be like the Philippines!

As pundits justifiably single out China for opprobrium, no one is pointing a finger at India, the Bush administration's new friend in South Asia. In the end, though, India's geo-strategic designs in its northeastern frontier are as compelling as China's southern concerns.

India has expressed concern over the developments in Myanmar and urged its government to be more inclusive and broad based. «India is concerned at and is closely monitoring the Myanmar situation. It is our hope that all sides will resolve their issues peacefully through dialogue. India has always believed that Myanmar?s process of political reform and national reconciliation should be more inclusive and broad-based,» External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Navtej Sarna said.

The developments in Myanmar have the potential to upset India's security calculations in the northeast, besides delaying its attempt to find a firmer foothold in the hydrocarbon sector. Other initiatives that could take a back seat if the situation worsens are a breakthrough in getting an alternate terrestrial route to the northeast via Myanmar and bilateral and multilateral negotiations to promote greater economic cooperation.

The uncertainty in getting offshore exploration blocks ended last week with the signing of production sharing contracts for three deep-water exploration blocks. In addition, India is part of a consortium looking for gas in two more blocks. More business would depend on India engaging more intimately with the current regime, including a second line of credit of $ 20 million to refurbish a refinery.

Not much solidarity with Buddhist monks (and non-Buddhists, too!) here! And, at least Beijing contemplates the possibility of opposition rule; New Dehli is so far from calling for an opposition government, it fears anything but a strong central government. Even Michael Goldfarb's tribute to Mia Farrow and condemnation of Moscow is all a bit hollow. After all, if pundits of any ideological stripe are determined to frame Beijing's ascendance in Asia as a new cold war, will they lecture the US if it arm-twists South America again? The sin, Goldfarb, and Sullivan, all bloated rhetoric about revolutions aside, seem to be imputing, is that Beijing and New Dehli are doing (in a dark-side-of-the-Force way), but Washington, and all American do-gooders, can only watch impotently. But, if we could, by golly, we'd be Skywalker! I'd prefer to be Indian, if that's all America has to show.

Reading the statements offered by various Burmese and world leaders, one problem, aside from the fundamental geo-strategic predicament of Myanmar and Chinese and Indian indifference, is the lack of agreement about what to do. Actually, I think the EU's comprehensive recommendations point to the immediate tactic: beef up ASEAN. The troubled IGO is Southeast Asia's best hope against Chinese and Indian encroachment and internal rebellion in its member-states. But, the US spends about as little time supporting it, and about as much time enfeebling it as China.

But, first, a common statement from the world would really make the Burmese junta listen. Washington could lead that effort.