Left Flank

Foreign Policy asks Clifford Kupchan, director for Europe and Eurasia at the Eurasia Group illuminates the debate about the Georgia-Russia clash.

FP: Are there any means with which Europe and the United States can punish Russia economically and politically now? Do you see that happening?

CK: We have very little leverage. The headline measures that you read about - throwing them out of the G-8, denying membership to the OECD, stopping WTO negotiations - won’t be very effective. Frankly, I don’t think the Russians really care about the G-8, and the WTO requires a bilateral agreement with Georgia, so that’s not likely.

There are steps we can take to push back, though. The Russians have a very proud elite. I think that over time the U.S. will curtail the number of bilateral meetings and some European countries will go along. «Ostracism» is too strong [a word]...[it’s more like] «selective avoidance.» No more military exercises. I think the strongest measure, which could and maybe should be on the table, is a sober discussion of the run-up to the 2014 Sochi Olympics, which are a crown jewel in Russia’s planning.

We’re still in the early days, and the Untied States will, I think, help reconstruct Georgia will help reconstruct the Georgian security forces. We don’t know what the endgame is going to be yet, so I think jumping to conclusions on what the United States can and should is premature. But are there things we will do? Yes? Are there things we can do? Yes? Can we punish Russia economically? No. Are there things that would make Russia chafe at least somewhat? Yes. That’s my best answer.

Again, the Olympics will remain a political tool, not a symbol of peace.

Another prediction concerns the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

FP: What does this mean for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline? Is it effectively dead now?

CK: The chances before were slim to none. Now they’re nudging toward none. From economic to producer-country to environmental reasons, there’ve been tremendous problems over a decade in getting that line built. This does drive another nail into the chances for that line.

Ironically, PRC might be a beneficiary of BTC's demise, as hydrocarbons flow either through Russian pipes, or east. Perhaps we should be asking what Beijing might have known about the preparations for this episode.