Left Flank

I wonder if American consumers would be willing to accept an Obama administration that lobbied OPEC to keep oil at $70/barrel? But, that's probably, according to Charles Maxwell, the optimal level oil can rest stably, so that oil and other alternative fuel investors will maintain investment projects. Daniel Yergin cautions against a return to sub $30 oil, because investors halt research which is nearly impossible to restart.

Maxwell also supported T. Boone Pickens' LNG proposals and investment in nuclear power.

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Joseph S. Nye argues that technological fixes in any one country are not enough to reduce emissions.

There are two basic instruments to reduce carbon emissions and thus mitigate global warming. Technological innovation and increased energy efficiency have considerable potential. For example, carbon sequestration allows the capture and storage of carbon in underground geological formations and deep oceans. Thus, less CO2 gets released into the atmosphere.

But technological innovation alone is unlikely to be sufficient. The other basic instrument includes economic incentives and disincentives. The so-called emissions trading system aims to control carbon emissions by allocating tradable permits. A carbon tax has also been proposed as a method to reduce consumption of fossil fuels.

Not everyone will embrace such instruments. In 2007, China surpassed the US as the world’s leading CO2 emitter. But China points out that on a per capita basis, US emissions are five times higher. China, India, and other countries argue that economic development in rich countries caused most of the existing problem, and it is only fair that developing countries should not have to reduce their emissions until they reach the rich countries’ levels of emissions. But this is a formula for global disaster. The world’s climate is affected by total emissions, regardless of their origin.

China uses coal, a particularly CO2-intensive fuel, for 70% of its commercial energy supply, while coal accounts for a third of America’s total energy. China is now estimated to build two new coal-fired power plants each week.

Coal is cheap and widely available in China, which is important as the country scrambles for energy resources to keep its many energy-intensive industries running. Given that the bombs, bullets, and embargoes of traditional security policy are irrelevant, what can the US and other rich countries do about this security threat?

A 2007 report from the International Energy Agency (created after the 1973 oil crisis to provide policy advice to industrial countries) urged a cooperative approach to helping China and India become more energy efficient. In other words, to prevent dangerous climate change and promote their own security, the US and other rich countries may have to forge a partnership with China, India, and others to develop creative ideas, technologies, and policies.

VBS-TV has another of its «guerrilla» reports on Linfen in the Shanxi province of PRC. The series will include 5 installments, and I have embedded the second one of the current four posted. This episode highlights the debilitating health effects of living in the «second» dirtiest city in the world (via TNR's The Vine: «Journey To The Dirtiest City On Earth»).

But for those seeking good news, it can be found even in China. Linfen is trying to clean up. By the end of this year, the city aims to close 160 of 196 iron foundries, and 57 of 153 coking plants. By replacing small, dirty and dangerous plants with large, cleaner and more carefully regulated facilities, the local government in Linfen plans to drastically reduce emissions. Central heating will be provided by gas instead of coal.

The changes are being driven by business (nobody wants to invest in such a polluted place), bureaucratic self-interest (local officials find it difficult to be promoted) and shifting political priorities.

«We have more power than before,» said Yang Zhaofen, director of Linfen's environmental bureau. «The mayor says we can sacrifice economic growth in order to improve air quality. That used to be unthinkable.»

There are already small signs of change. Last year, Linfen's residents breathed 163 days of unhealthy air, 15 days fewer than in 2005. Many factories have already been closed - not a wisp of smoke emerges from their chimneys. Thanks partly to such measures, Linfen lost its bottom spot in China's latest pollution rankings to the far-flung western city of Urumqi.

Other episodes discuss illegal coal-mining and the destruction of agriculture.