Left Flank

The optimistic case for the Indo-American nuclear deal goes something like this:

The deal would end a 30-year-old international ban on India's access to peaceful nuclear and other sensitive technologies, including urgently needed uranium for existing nuclear power stations. It would transform America-India relations?and open the door to American companies for lucrative defence, nuclear and other contracts.

India's Communists, play «...a pivotal role» in the current Indian government, and they don't like the idea of a dependent relationship with the US. But, is there any threat to that prospect?

The good news, most proponents and critics alike of the nuclear deal say, is that the improved relations between the United States and India that resulted from five years of intensive talks are likely to remain on an upward trajectory.

«India is a key and growing player on every issue that matters to Americans in the 21st century- whether it's terrorism or nuclear proliferation, spreading democracy, HIV/AIDS, climate change, or energy. So the logic behind improving US-Indian relations is compelling no matter who is in power in Washington,» says Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst who has advised three administrations on South Asian issues. «Even if the nuclear deal never goes through, other parts of a strategic partnership will move forward.»

Political factors have probably put the deal into «hibernation,» adds Mr. Riedel, who is now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. But he says the «logic» of strengthened US-Indian ties means it is likely to reemerge at some point and in some form.

Other experts, in particular those from the nonproliferation community who had a dim view of the nuclear accord, say putting the controversial agreement aside may be the best outcome for US-India relations.

«Rather than the springboard the administration promised, this deal turned into a stumbling block on the road to a new partnership with India,» says Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington. «If this is in the deep freeze, maybe we can get to some of the other items on the bilateral agenda that the preoccupation with the nuclear deal pushed to the back of the queue.» Among those items, he says, are trade, visas for qualified Indians, clean-coal technology, and «developing other ways of energy cooperation that make more sense.»

The nuclear agreement, which was to pave the way for the US to provide India with nuclear fuel for a new generation of power plants, has come under intense attack from left-wing parties in India who fear a loss of sovereignty from closer ties with the US. Last week, Prime Minister Singh told Mr. Bush in a telephone conversation that the deal, which the White House had hoped India would approve by the end of the year, faced intensifying opposition.

But as that CSM article and another WaPo article argue, Congress is at odds with the Bush administration for good reasons.

Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to the pact in July 2005, but it has faced many hurdles. Congress gave preliminary approval last year in a bill known as the Hyde Act. New Delhi and Washington negotiated language this year to comply with the law, but lawmakers have said that the administration did not fulfill congressional instructions.

Nevertheless, some concessions made by New Delhi in the talks with the United States have sparked opposition in India. Foes of the plan there have said the agreement impinges on Indian sovereignty.

The [Nuclear Suppliers Group] NSG, which governs trade in reactors and uranium, has begun to debate whether to grant India an exemption from nuclear trade rules, which is essential for the deal to proceed. The resolution urges the administration, which has begun to lobby for NSG approval, not to seek an exemption until it has addressed congressional concerns over compliance with the Hyde Act.

The resolution also says the United States should support an exemption only if it contains key provisions of the Hyde Act, including the end of trade with India if it conducts a nuclear test and a ban on the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology to India.

Congressional aides provided a copy of the text, saying they hoped it would make clear to India Congress's increasing uneasiness with the pact. One noted language in the resolution's preamble saying that if the NSG approves the exemption, but Congress votes down the deal, India could engage in civil nuclear commerce with every country but the United States, which would put U.S. firms «at a competitive disadvantage.»

There's also the issue of whether India is trustworthy enough. Undermining multilateral restrictions to gamble on bilateral ties is just one desperate deal (a sentiment New Delhi doesn't seem to share) too many.