Left Flank

CFR's Jayshree Bajoria (cross-Strait economic "dependence") and The China Beat's Paul R Katz ("politics of the pocketbook") both agree economic policy and PRC played a major role in the KMT victory in Taiwanese presidential elections. Yet, there's more to the election than just self-interest.

Bajoria puts paid to the notion Taiwanese voters are ready to return to Mother China:

But a policy of greater cross-Strait cooperation from Taipei needs to be met with a similar approach from China, writes Alan D. Romberg, director of the East AsiaProgram at the Henry L. Stimson Center. He says China's failure to do so «will risk destroying the opportunity that now exists to stabilize cross-Strait relations for a considerable time to come.»

The KMT win in presidential elections may reflect the public's desire for less provocative policies toward the mainland, but it does not diminish Taiwan's desire (WSJ) to be treated as a sovereign state for the foreseeable future, writes Ted Galen Carpenter of the Cato Institute. «If China can accept that important but limited improvement in relations, we shall see a period of welcome calm in the Taiwan Strait.» Following China's crackdown on pro-independence protests in Tibet, rhetoric from both candidates made it clear that they were not willing to compromise on what they saw as the island's sovereignty (Taipei Times).

A recent opinion poll in Taiwan by U.S.-based Zogby International notes 63 percent of respondents viewed their country as a sovereign and independent country and 71 percent described themselves as Taiwanese. Only 5 percent said they were «Chinese.» The growing Taiwanese «identity» shift may also increase the voice for de jure independence, writes CFR Military Fellow Captain Jeffrey A. Harley in the Harvard International Review. Now is the time, he argues, for the United States to resolve its existing policy ambiguities in its relations with Taiwan and China.

Katz lauds Taiwanese political maturity:

What the KMT's return to power means for Taiwan's future remains to be seen, but one should give utmost credit to the maturation of its democratic system. Unlike what happened following the presidential election of 2000, when the KMT lost power, this time there were no protests or riots, just tears and concern for what may lie in store. The day after the election, my family and visited the venerable Huang Kunbin ??? (affectionately known as 'Uncle Kunbin' or Khun-pin peh ??? in Southern Min) at his some in Tainan County. The star of the touching documentary about Taiwan's farmers entitled "Let it Be" (Wumile ???), Khun-pin-beh is a symbol of all that is good about Taiwan. He was philosophical about the results, noting that: "When the curtain comes down, it's time for the play to end."

So, be scared, Seoul (for once, South Korean xenophobia and self-importance might serve a beneficial purpose)!

The CSM asks, "Will Beijing ever get the point?"

Time is on Taiwan's side as its democracy matures and its de facto independence becomes widely accepted. The "new" KMT cannot now return to its old authoritarian, corrupt ways or it will lose the very US support that keeps Taiwan from being swallowed by the dragon and allows democracy to flourish.

The US showed its resolve to defend Taiwan in 1996 during a cross-strait crisis in which China lobbed "test" missiles toward the island. Now this potential flash point of Asia has used its democracy once again to show the world – and especially China – how a people can collectively correct their leaders through ballots instead of bullets.

Shall I punctuate the point, after last year's 17th Party Congress farce? "The March 22 election was the second time this 'Chinese democracy' saw a transfer of power, serving as a model for what China could be." Michael Turton, even in his despair, adds color.

Another thing -- the atmosphere in Taipei is nightmarish. Never again will I spend an election there -- the conventional wisdom is totally out of touch with the reality of the electorate. In 2004 I stayed in Taichung and got a pretty good line on what would happen, but not this time. I used to describe what circulates in Taipei as a cloud cuckoo-land of KMT talking points, but even that isn't right -- I lack a good grip on the kind of language to characterize its vast and all-encompassing wrongness. As reporters were churning out articles saying that the election was going to be tight Ma win, as speakers everywhere were retreating to positions of nervous ambiguity, and people talking to both campaigns said it would be tight, voters were preparing to hand Ma a 17 point victory. On Friday the DPP was saying it was seeing a late surge for Frank Hsieh, which I didn't report because it so obviously reeked of lying spin. But some apparently did. Nobody I talked to in the capital even got a whiff of a 17 point Ma victory, though all thought he'd win. Certainly somebody knew, because there were massive capital inflows into Taiwan in the last week before the election as international capital prepared to hollow out Taiwan like a gourd invest in our fine nation in anticipation of a Ma victory. Ironically, the nearest polls were the nutcase polls in the pro-Ma papers, though a close examination will show they were nowhere near correct either.

Voter patterns! I'll have a full discussion on them later this week. One thing that really really really stands out here is the desperate need for thorough, credible, detailed survey work that is reliable through time. Tomorrow's analyses in Taipei are going to be largely groups of people talking without the numbers to back them up.

It all sounds like a modern democracy, even if most news organizations have their own pro-Beijing spin.

Should we keep a vigil for KMT autocracy?