Left Flank

At the moment, Australia's new PM, Kevin Rudd, has limited his conceivable plans for East Asia to the naming of a Chinese-Australian female minister for climate change (splitting the environment portfolio with former Midnight Oil lead singer, Peter Garrett). But, speculation has raced around the blogosphere about more substantive changes.

Overall, E.J. Dionne, Jr. argues that Rudd is a trend-setter:

Rudd's balancing act provides a model for center-left parties that also points to the tensions they confront once in power. Rudd won as a self-described "economic conservative" who would tightly manage the nation's budget. But he also won thanks to an activated trade union movement fighting for its life in seeking to overthrow Howard's workplace rules.   

IHT's Raymond Bonner believes Australia under Rudd will continue to improve relations with Beijing. Yet, with the same resume in hand and a 2004 interview, Kerim Friedman and David on Formosa (via The View from Taiwan) have a polite disagreement about PM Kevin Rudd's future significance for Taiwan.

Emily O'Keefe (via TPR) argues that PM Rudd will challenge Japan to update Australian-Japan relations.

While fundamental policies should remain the same, Rudd will have a deeper understanding of Australia's relationship with the U.S. and Japan, and will look to use this to develop more constructive political and economic relations with China, Drysdale said.

But one area that Drysdale predicts will be affected by the change in government is Japan and Australia's free-trade negotiations.

"I think Rudd will pursue this more vigorously than Howard," he said.

Not only will Rudd refuse any deal that does not reduce agricultural trade barriers, he will be looking for a "much broader than traditional" agreement that would further Australia's interests on a multilateral level, he said.

"There is a clear understanding in the Rudd policy group that what Australia needs out of the negotiation of a new agreement with Japan is something more innovative . . . consistent with opening up the region and in multilateral negotiations over time," he said.

On India, Labor's uranium policy looks set to scuttle a smooth relationship with India. Yet, Japan Observer is optimistic about the prospects for an Australian-Japanese alliance to coax US re-engagement in the region.

With Fûkûdá Yasuo replacing Mr. Abe, and the Mandarin-speaking Mr. Rudd replacing Mr. Howard, the "deputy sheriff," the "quad" may be no more. Both Mr. Fûkûdá and Mr. Rudd seem to believe that their power is best spent promoting cooperation in Asia, not deepening security cooperation among democracies conveniently located on all sides of China.

The Economist concurs, but is more cautious about Japan's role in the new partnership:

Most of all, where Mr Abe—and Junichiro Koizumi immediately before him—believed that a stronger Japan meant, above all, one rooted in the American alliance, some of his advisers think Mr Fûkûdá should show that Japan is capable of more independent action as a way to enhance its prestige and protect its interests.

Japan, they say, should lead the creation of regional mechanisms that would ease territorial disputes, enhance military transparency and boost confidence among neighbours—think an Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Asia. Distracted elsewhere, the Bush administration has shown little interest in such ideas.

What then of the much-touted arc of freedom and prosperity? In truth, democratic values were always merely the cover for a hard-nosed desire to confront China's rise in Asia, which is Japan's abiding foreign-policy concern. The Fûkûdá doctrine could easily be adapted to address the same concern, but by aiming to entice rather than contain China.

To judge by his own foreign-policy pronouncements, Mr Rudd, a speaker of Chinese, would approve, while America can see it would be better off if its chief Asian ally had more respect, even influence, in the region. For Japan, then, the same hard-nosed goal, the same allies, but different and possibly more subtle methods—always assuming, of course, that Japan's dysfunctional politics do not sink this government before its arc has a chance to rise.

I'm afraid US engagement with any part of the world is a far-off prospect, but I agree globalization needs to balance geopolitics. So, it looks like it's up to Kevin Rudd to make it happen.