Left Flank

McClatchy's Tim Johnson just has to enable my predilection for all-inclusive theories that efficiently allow me to post just once in a pithy way. The latest gem? Kim Jong-il tips his hat to Moammar Khaddafy.

So here goes the latest speculation: Just as Khaddafy won the good graces of the West by spilling the beans on the A.Q. Khan nuclear network, getting Libya out of the diplomatic doghouse, Kim Jong Il has now offered Washington the list of the buyers of its nuclear technology, including Syria. The Bush administration turned around and gave the info to Jerusalem, which sent the jetfighters scrambling to bomb the alleged nuclear site in Syria.

This speculation comes at the website of Stratfor, a subscription global intelligence outfit, whose reports are not always, er, on target. It was picked up at the China Matters blog, where I learned of it.

Nonetheless, the theory goes that North Korea is signaling to the United States, with which it dearly wants to weave a closer diplomatic relationship, that it can provide info of value. After all, North Korea is not entirely desirous of maintaining only one strategic ally, China. It would be more than happy to play China and the United States off each other.

There are many possible holes in this theory. North Korea has few ways to earn hard currency. Why would Pyongyang destroy relations with one of its few remaining customers for military/nuclear technology? What happens if the six-party talks on North Korea?s nuclear program break down again? North Korea will be more penniless than ever.

I accept China Hand's caveats, too, especially that Beijing hopes to keep the US enmeshed in as many relationships, preferably chronically troubled, in order to slowly bleed Washington's resources and soft power. I'm still skeptical the DPRK was doing little more than trading missiles in Syria, too. In the end, the Dayr az-Zwar play might have been little more than an opening maneuver in the current round of Six Party talks.

Not that here isn't something awe-inspiring about the concept of spending gazillions for nuke-tipped missiles, only to present a check for yet more missiles to destroy the first batch, but 70% is not a great record.

The $85 million test was a rerun of one that was supposed to have taken place in May but was scrubbed when the target misfired.

The test marked the sixth successful downing of a target in 10 full-fledged intercept tests since October 1999 in which knocking down the target was the primary objective, said Richard Lehner, a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency.

It's also inspiring, that Washington doesn't feel challenged enough in Iraq to tackle another challenge with the Kim regime that cannot both feed people and deliver a nuclear payload consistently. I feel safe as an American, that Washington can spend so much money to be so diligent about self-fulfilling tests. Being the profligate hyperpower that devices the threat of wasting more money than humanly possible is a big deterrent to a sadist willing to sacrifice his population. It'll certainly be embarrassing if Pyongyang can undermine the US the way the US outspent the former Soviet Union.

President Bush goes to the United Nations, and all the Chosun Daily hears is «North Korea is a 'brutal regime' «!

Actually, I thought his speech was dead on, and I would support all his recommendations, particularly a UNSC seat for Japan and reforming the UN Human Rights Commission. And, actually, «brutal regime» is a polite insult. Obviously Michael Gerson is much needed.

Running down the article's summary (for wired South Koreans recovering from five days of holiday over-eating, alcohol consumption, games, housework, and more alcohol), the latest episode in the Dayr az-Zawr airstrike drama, is Washington's imposition of sanctions on a North Korean missile company (more info at KT). Is this all that comes from all the speculation about nukes the past few weeks?

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean «nuclear material» recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively «dirty» warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

Someone needs to work on those headlines. And, stop taking off for five days. Or, shoving all that news into one report.