Left Flank

As an antidote for the rampant romanticization of the Burmese riots in Yangon and else where in Myanmar, Power and Interest News Report offers a report about the economic factors behind the Myanmar protests.

The last major uprising in Myanmar occurred in 1988. The underlying cause of the revolt was economic and resulted in violent repression by the military. The outcome of the current protest could be similar. Regardless, due to the decades of military involvement in the economy, dependency on resource exports and a high rate of corruption that pervades the country, the necessary economic improvements will not come easily. Even with peaceful political change, without significant international oversight, the overwhelming precedence of military intervention and control in the country will likely return Myanmar to state-sponsored economic mismanagement.

But China is a much more attractive bogeyman!

In an article where the International Herald Tribune gets it (and then goes too far), Michael Green, a former Bush administration official and current quote factory, has his own simple formula.

«The more authoritarian the regime, the more vulnerable it is to mobilized dissent when they try to raise energy prices,» Green said.

«When democratic institutions are stronger, governments have been better able to manage energy demands. That's the lesson from Indonesia.»

The list of miracles democracy can perform increases by the day!

Here's another reason why the Saffron Revolution will again dissipate: Total and its rationalizations.

«We are convinced that through our presence we are helping to improve the daily lives of tens of thousands of people who benefit from our social and economic initiatives,» said Jean-Francois Lassalle, a vice-president for public affairs at Total. «Our departure could cause the population even greater hardship and is thus an unacceptable risk.»

(...)

«To those who ask us to leave the country, we reply that far from solving Myanmar's problems, a forced withdrawal would only lead to our replacement by other operators probably less committed to the ethical principles guiding all our initiatives,» Lassalle said.

Actually, I do favor the argument presented by the Kuznets curve, and on a sunny day Total is right. But, it's not sunny in Yangon right now.

But, it's a team effort.

The Canadian dollar, or loonie, overtook the American dollar due to China, the American mortgage crisis, and Canadian good sense. But, it's always a mixed picture, and never just a national struggle only.

Firstly, Canada has China, and its rapacious thirst for raw materials, to thank for a loonie worth more than the greenback.

«When the [Canadian] dollar was trading just above 60 [American] cents, people thought there was something wrong,» says Darrell Bricker of Ipsos-Reid, a polling firm. «Now it seems that we are doing something right.»

That and good fortune: the industrialisation of China has boosted the world price of Canada's exports of oil, gas, minerals, metals and farm products. But the country has also done its housework: ten years of federal budget surpluses and a current-account surplus contrast with the twin deficits in the United States. In the end it was the «subprime» mortgage woes south of the border that elevated the loonie over the sickly greenback (or should that be the «Yankee lira»?).

Ouch!

But it's not all good news amid the nationalistic cheer:

As well, the province's exports of oil, gas and agricultural products now cost more.

At a business conference in Banff, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach said every cent the Canadian dollar gains costs the provincial treasury more than $100 million in revenues a year, but pointed out some of it is offset by other revenue such as corporate taxes.

Some Americans are benefiting, too.

While the rise of the loonie - nicknamed after the image of the national bird, the loon, on the Canadian one-dollar coin - has made it less attractive for Americans to travel to Canada, it has been a boon to some Washington businesses. Issaquah-based Costco Wholesale Corp. has seen a steady increase in sales at its Bellingham warehouse near the Canadian border, and a Bellingham mall has reported substantial Canadian business. Seattle-based Kenmore Air is considering additional marketing toward our neighbors to the north for its seaplane service.

It just goes to show how much nationality and borders really count for.