Left Flank

Andrew Gelman asks «what really happened» on November 4, but the graphs raise more questions than they answer. Gelman calls it a «national partisan swing». Perhaps, a feeble «step towards realignment» is a better guess.

Greg Mankiw thinks the GOP alienated younger voters on social issues, not the economic ones. Matthew Yglesias notes that ethnic «minorities» did it for Obama.

Barack Obama won 96% of African Americans, 68% of Latinos, 64% of Asians, and 44% of whites. In 2004, Kerry won 89% of African Americans, 55% of Latinos, 56% of Asians, and 41% of whites. So Obama gained the most among ethnic minorities.

The Obama ground game hoovered up the young voters, but what attracted the richer folk is probably just as interesting. But, something else Mankiw suggests leads me to believe the old 90s coalition of libertarianism plus social liberalism is not dead.

In this election, the young left the Republican party in droves.

Why? I am not enough of a political scientist to be sure, but recent conversations I have had with some Harvard undergrads have led me to a conjecture: It was largely noneconomic issues. These particular students told me they preferred the lower tax, more limited government, freer trade views of McCain, but they were voting for Obama on the basis of foreign policy and especially social issues like abortion. The choice of a social conservative like Palin as veep really turned them off McCain.

One Harvard Dem takes exception.

I would go further and suggest that the «liberaltarianism» Mankiw's reaching for is basically a yuppie fantasy, a silly and impractical ideology which exists nowhere -- except silly and impractical places like Cambridge.

It'll take a long time before the elite media can admit it, and the right wing never will, but redistributionism is popular; we just saw a resounding affirmation of that, after Republicans called Obama a SOCIALIST!! at the top of their lungs and, surprise, Obama won anyway. (Don't even get me started on «limited government and free trade,» which are not exactly big-ticket vote-movers either, DLCism notwithstanding.) Point is: people who think that kids these days are predominantly libertarian are probably spending way too much time writing textbooks.

But, that could just be the party line.

Kevin Drum bets on the other half of the combo.

Four years ago the big post-election meme was a warning that Democrats needed to get more socially conservative, but that didn't happen and they won anyway. Social liberalism is actually (surprise!) pretty popular.

On the other hand, there's certainly a place in America for an economically conservative party. Republicans have gone overboard on this during the past decade, but they might be able to get by with only a modest course correction on this score. The financial meltdown won't last forever, after all. On social issues, though, they're doomed if they continue to hitch their future to the hard edged conservatism of their evangelical base. They've mostly won the battle on guns, but on issues like abortion, stem cells, gay rights, immigration, and the environment (which most people view as a lifestyle issue, not an economic issue) I don't see how they survive if they don't moderate their positions fairly dramatically. The GOP is in danger of permanently losing an entire cohort of the electorate if they continue to be perceived as a party in thrall to xenophobes, bluenoses, and tent revival preachers. They created James Dobson; now they need to tame him.

It all depends on which disjunct is more important to the voter athe time of any given election, I assume. So, again, back to the figures we should go. There's four years to figure this out.

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A political marriage? A marriage of convenience?

Florida's Republican Governor, and unlikely Vice-Presidential nominee, is surely acting like he's running to be Senator John McCain's political partner. Yet, it would be an affront to social conservatives and fiscal hawks alike.

Rome is a 1991 honors graduate of Georgetown University who became
president of her family's 100-year-old Halloween costume business in
2000 when her father died. She has two daughters, ages 11 and 9, with
former husband Todd Rome of New York, CEO of Blue Star Jets. She moved
to Fisher Island in Miami in 2006.

The Romes' divorce was finalized this year, and Todd Rome has
been quoted in New York gossip columns speaking fondly of his ex-wife
and wishing her the best with Crist.

Crist's famously frugal lifestyle could be coming to an end.
While he has never bought a home and earns $140,000 a year as governor,
his net worth of about $450,000 was by far the smallest of any other
statewide officeholder.

Meanwhile, Todd Rome estimated in court records that his
ex-wife's income has been as high as $1.48-million a year, and the
Romes' numerous properties included a 10,000-square-foot vacation home
in Southampton, N.Y.

CBN's David Brody (via Democracy in America's «Crist to Get Hitched») argues social conservatives will raise the black flag.

So why is Crist a problem for social conservatives? Well, first of
all they don't believe he's pro-life. He says he's pro-life but in the
past he's said he was pro-choice. Read more on that here.
He has also supported civil unions. In addition, when the whole Terri
Schiavo controversy exploded in Florida, Crist DID NOT side with
pro-family groups who wanted him to take a more active role. He stayed
on the sidelines.

Would McCain really pick Crist? It would be seen as a slap in the
face to the Evangelical base yet McCain could look at it another way.

Let's face it. The general election is going to be won (just like
every general election) by winning the Independent vote. McCain could
pick Crist which would (as stated above) nail down the key state of
Florida and at the same time be a signal to Independents to say that
McCain is more of a centrist and WILL NOT pander to the Evangelical
base. Independents will love that. The danger of course is that many
Evangelicals will not vote in November. Decisions, decisions. This is a
critical pick for McCain.

As an independent Floridian (as my driver's license says-I have to keep checking), the prospect of a frugal bachelor marying a rich heiress this late in his life is also a smack in the face.