Left Flank

Florida has lost its water, which will stay in Lake Lanier up north in Georgia. But, all hope—and future endless pissing contests—isn't lost

The ruling, however, doesn't settle the issue.

The Corps still must write a permanent water plan. And all three states in the water war, including Alabama, are involved in complex lawsuits meant to resolve it.

Calling all ad agencies: how do you make victimized mussels and sturgeon cute? How will Charlie Crist, in his bid to Republican VP take this defeat?

Regarding US relations with marginal players in East and South Asia, such as the Koreas, Taiwan, and the ASEAN states, according to PINR's Mohan Malik, the centrality of Indo-PRC rivalry should be considered:

An internal study on India undertaken in mid-2005 (with inputs from China's South Asia watchers such as Cheng Ruisheng, Ma Jiali, Sun Shihai, Rong Ying, Shen Dingli, among others) at the behest of the Chinese leadership's «Foreign Affairs Cell» recommended that Beijing take all measures to maintain its current strategic leverage (in terms of territory, membership of the exclusive Permanent Five and Nuclear Five clubs); diplomatic advantages (special relationships, membership of regional and international organizations); and economic lead over India. Although the evidence is inconclusive, the most plausible deduction is that this internal re-assessment of India lies behind the recent hardening of China's stance on the territorial dispute and a whole range of other issues in China-India relations.

The Chinese are concerned that the U.S.-India nuclear deal and related agreements would bring about a major shift in the power balance in South Asia that is currently tilted in China's favor. The recent strengthening of China's strategic presence in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and overtures to the Maldives should, therefore, be seen against this backdrop. Despite protestations to the contrary from India and the United States that New Delhi is unwilling and unlikely to play the role of a closely aligned U.S. surrogate such as Japan or Britain, China's Asia strategy is based upon the premise that maritime powers such as the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India would eventually form an informal quadrilateral alliance to countervail continental China.

As a commentary in Huanqiu Shibao noted:

«The fact is that Japan, Australia, and India are respectively located at China's northeast, southeast, and southwest, and all are Asian powers, while U.S. power in the Pacific is still unchallengeable. Hence, should the «alliance of values» concentrating military and ideological flavors in one body take shape, it will have a very great impact on China's security environment.»

From Beijing's perspective, the responsibility for this «negative development» lies solely at New Delhi's door. In their writings, Chinese analysts seem upset over their southern neighbor's all-consuming passion to become «a big power,» and see the nuclear deal as its key to unlocking the door leading to the big league in world politics.

As a Renmin Ribao commentary noted in August:

The U.S.-Indian nuclear agreement has strong symbolic significance for India in achieving its dream of a powerful nation?In recent years, it introduced and implemented a 'Look-East' policy and joined most regional organizations in the East Asian region?In fact, the purpose of the United States to sign a civilian nuclear energy cooperation agreement with India is to enclose India into its global partners' camp, so as to balance the forces of Asia [read, China]. This fits in exactly with India's wishes.

Once the nuclear deal crosses all the «big four hurdles» (opposition from pro-Chinese Communist parties in India; negotiations on I.A.E.A. safeguards; approval by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (N.S.G.); and its passage by the U.S. Congress), Beijing believes that it would end the nuclear symmetry between New Delhi and Islamabad (or, de-hyphenate the sub-continental rivals) and put India on par with nuclear China (re-hyphenate China with India).

This, from Beijing's perspective, is quite disconcerting because a major objective of China's South Asia policy has been to perpetuate parity between India and Pakistan. Add to this India's military exercises with the U.S., Japan and Australia, support for the concept of «concert of democracies,» and attempts to establish strategic ties with countries that fall within China's sphere of influence (Mongolia, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Myanmar) - all of these reinforce Beijing's fears about its containment. However, despite its strong disapproval of a pact that would narrow the power gap between India and China, Beijing would not want to take a stance that pushes India further into Washington's camp. Most likely, Beijing would use its N.S.G. membership to further its own and its allies' interests by:

Using the «double standards» argument to question Washington's commitment to non-proliferation goals in light of its decision to back India's nuclear industry while opposing the right to nuclear energy for Iran and Pakistan;

Insisting that any changes to the N.S.G. guidelines to accommodate the deal must not be «country [i.e., India]-specific» but «universal criteria-based» so that «all countries [read, Pakistan] can benefit from the peaceful use of atomic energy under the I.A.E.A. safeguards.» This formulation, outlined by Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, would pave the way for the Chinese construction of the Chashma III and IV nuclear reactors in Pakistan;

Using the deal to extract major concessions from Washington, including an end to the arms embargo and the lifting of bans on high-tech dual-use technology exports to China;

Seeking new assurances that U.S.-India ties are not related to any «contain China» strategy.

The fact of the matter is that China and India are locked in a classic security dilemma: one country sees its own actions as self-defensive, but the same actions appear aggressive to the other. India feels the need to take counter-balancing measures and launch certain initiatives to stay independent of China - such as the «Look East» policy - which are perceived as challenging and threatening in China. Like China, India is actively seeking to reintegrate its periphery with the framework of regional economic cooperation. Like China, India seeks greater international status and influence commensurate with its growing economic power.

However, like any other established status quo great power, China wants to ensure that its position remains strong vis-�-vis challenger India for strategic, economic and geopolitical reasons. Through closer strategic ties with India's neighboring countries, China is warning India not to take any counter-measures to balance Beijing's growing might.

The implication from Dr. Mohan's argument is, that the Washington needs to consider decisions, that strengthen the quadrilateral relationship between Australia, India, Japan, and the US, and do not weaken containment at the weak points in the Koreas, Taiwan, and among the ASEAN states, including Myanmar. Domestic reform in Myanmar is probably impossible, since both Beijing and New Dehli view Myanmar's contiguity with Tibet troubling. But, it also means Washington should avoid actions, that alienate marginal players, like the Koreas and Taiwan, into a pro-PRC position, and instead opt for their neutrality.

People and resources get sacrificed, to maintain an average of 10% growth a year. Ask the residents of Hongwei.

The Hongwei Petrochemical Park is just outside the city of Daqing. Celebrated in Maoist myth as the scene of heroic industrialisation, Daqing is still the fourth most productive oilfield in the world. Of the six companies operating in the park, the largest is Daqing Lianhua, a PetroChina subsidiary.

For eight years residents of Hongwei have been waging a fruitless struggle to find the cause of high rates of serious illness in their midst. Out of a permanent population of 3,400, at least ten children have been born with an affliction diagnosed by local doctors as cerebral palsy. It is unprecedented for the incidence of cerebral palsy to «cluster» in this way. Foreign experts think from the symptoms and clustering that the disease is akin to Minamata Syndrome, a neurological condition caused by exposure to mercury in the womb. Cancer rates are twice the national average.

Legal efforts to establish a link between the plant and the illness have failed. But in 2003 the local government acknowledged the seriousness of Hongwei's pollution and called on Daqing Lianhua to relocate the villagers. But nothing has come of this, nor of offers to find jobs at the firm for protesting locals.

Or, Zhang Zhongmin.

«People who are buying apartments aren't thinking about whether there will be water in the future,» said Zhang Zhongmin, who has tried for the past 20 years to raise public awareness about the city's dire water situation.

For three decades, water has been indispensable in sustaining the rollicking economic expansion that has made China a world power. Now, China's galloping, often wasteful style of economic growth is pushing the country toward a water crisis. Water pollution is rampant nationwide, while water scarcity has worsened severely in north China - even as demand keeps rising everywhere.

China is scouring the world for oil, natural gas and minerals to keep its economic machine humming. But trade deals cannot solve water problems. Water usage in China has quintupled since 1949, and leaders will increasingly face tough political choices as cities, industry and farming compete for a finite and unbalanced water supply.

One example is grain. The Communist Party, leery of depending on imports to feed the country, has long insisted on grain self-sufficiency. But growing so much grain consumes huge amounts of underground water in the North China Plain, which produces half the country's wheat. Some scientists say farming in the rapidly urbanizing region should be restricted to protect endangered aquifers. Yet doing so could threaten the livelihoods of millions of farmers and cause a spike in international grain prices.

For the Communist Party, the immediate challenge is the prosaic task of forcing the world's most dynamic economy to conserve and protect clean water. Water pollution is so widespread that regulators say a major incident occurs every other day. Municipal and industrial dumping has left broad sections of many rivers «unfit for human contact.»

Meanwhile, there's too much water near the Three Gorges Dam:

Wang [Xiaofeng, director of the administrative office in charge of building the dam] cited a litany of threats, especially erosion and landslides on steep hills around the dam, conflicts over land shortages and «ecological deterioration caused by irrational development».

The strikingly frank acknowledgement of problems comes weeks before a congress of the ruling Communist Party that is set to consolidate policies giving more attention to environmental worries after decades of unfettered industrial growth.

Wang revealed that Premier Wen Jiabao had used a cabinet meeting earlier this year to discuss the environmental problems surrounding the dam.

Tensions over residents resettled to steep hills where good farmland is scarce had been reduced and water quality in the dam was «generally stable», Xinhua said.

But the officials and experts were worried about the landslides threatening densely populated hill country.

«Regular geological disasters are a severe threat to the lives of residents around the dam,» senior engineer Huang Xuebin told the forum.

Huang described landslides into the dam waters making waves dozens of meters high that crashed into surrounding shores, creating even more damage.

The dam has displaced 1.4 million people and is retaining huge amounts of sediment and nutrients, damaging fish stocks and the fertility of farmland downstream, researchers say.

Trade, emigration, and a little technical help might tackle these crises.